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Michael James McDonald is a stock market forecaster, author and former Senior Vice President of Investments at what is now Morgan Stanley. He is a long-term advocate of the theory of contrarian opinions and measuring investor sentiment in predicting stock price direction. His first book, ‘A Strategic Guide to the Coming Roller Coaster Market’, was published in June 2000, three months before the IPO. top of the dotcom market. Written on the cover was: “How a New Model of the Stock Market Predicts the End of the 18-Year Bull Market (1982-2000) and the Beginning of a New Era.” The ‘new era’ would be a long-term trading market (roller coaster), which became a reality between 2000 and 2009. A second book entitled ‘Predict Market Swings With Technical Analysis’ was published by Wiley and Sons in 2002. Then, on August 31, 2010, in a Seeking Alpha article titled, “The 10-Year Trading Range Is Over – The ‘Final Rush’ Has Begun,” he called an end to the 10-year trading range market and the beginning of a new long-term bull market, which also came about. He says: “It has long been observed that 50% or more of a stock’s price can be determined just by the emotions of fear and greed. A universal warning sign is when ‘too many’ investors expect the same thing. When ‘too many’ ‘ investors expect a stock to go up, it usually goes down with statistics that measure when ‘too many’ investors expect something This is what the Sentiment King has developed over the years. Through his company, the Sentiment King, he continues study the psychology of investors and measure in an effort to successfully predict major stock trends – and help others see them too.
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